Estimating coffee sales at an event

[Gila]

We were just invited to be the only coffee provider at a pretty big event over Memorial Day weekend. It's a music and motorcycle festival that has been going on for 20 years and attracts about 10,000 people. It runs Friday through Sunday. There will be ~20 other food vendors, 2 of which will offer coffee as part of an extensive menu. We will be the only 'coffee only' vendor.

SIDE NOTE: We just opened up shop in this town (town is of ~10,000 residents) 3 weeks ago and we are the only roaster for 2 hours in any direction. We have been well received. We sell drip coffee and whole bean out of our drive-through.

We're not big event goers ourselves and have NO IDEA what kind of volume to expect. We plan to brew coffee at our drive-through and then shuttle it over in airpots. The event will be about a half mile away from the downtown area where there are 3 cafes. Questions -

1. What percentage of event attendees will purchase a cup of hot coffee (assuming moderate weather)? We will only serve hot coffee and bottled waters.
2. How much do you mark up a cup of coffee for an event? We sell our coffee for $2.25 (12 oz) out of the drive-through and were thinking of rounding up to $3.00
3. Do you see any reason not to allow customers to serve themselves? Because we are a small operation, I will be manning the booth by myself for most of the day. I plan on taking money and giving the customer a cup. They can use the airpot themselves and add cream/sugar if they like.
4. What is the best way to offer cream/sugar at events? Do you add it for them from big dispensers or have the take-away's available for them to rip open and add themselves?

Thanks A LOT for your help. Oh, one more thing...the music festival is FREE, which presumably might increase food vendor sales since people have more money to spend.

 

[PinkRose]

Is the event estimated to bring 10,000 people over the course of the 3 day weekend?

Where are you located? Will the weather be a factor? Depending on where you're located, Memorial Day weekend weather can either be nice, or it can be windy, drizzly, and chilly. Obviously coffee sales increase on the chilly mornings before the sun comes out to heat things up a bit.

The hours of operation for the event are a factor too. Will you be set up and ready to go early in the morning? Other vendors and people setting up their stands usually search out a place for coffee early in the day, so a lot of your coffee sales will be early in the day.

Since the event is free, will people be allowed to bring their own food and beverages, or do they have to buy it there?

You'll sell a lot of bottled water as the day goes on. Then, people will start to get sleepy after lunch, and the coffee sales will start to increase.

If you give people the empty cup and let them serve themselves, be prepared for some of them to think it's okay to come back and serve themselves a second cup (for free).

Charging an even $3.00 for a cup of coffee would save you from having to worry about having anough coins for change. Will you charge an even $2.00 for the bottled water?

Will you be using the little individual coffee creamers that don't need refrigeration? (such an Mini Moos). People who fetch coffee for someone else, usually don't know how much cream and sweeteners to put in it. They like to take a few packets of sweetener and a couple of Mini Moos so the person can fix the coffee themselves.

The take-away packets of sugar and sweeteners are convenient. It's very hard to measure how much sweetener you're putting into your cup of coffee if you're pouring it from a large dispenser. People are used to using one or two packets of sugar or other sweetener, and they don't think about measuring it much anymore. The packets are less messy, and they're not very expensive if you buy them in bulk.

Rose

 

[Gila]

Thanks so much for the quick response!

Supposedly 10,000 over the 3 day weekend. They get the estimate from the porta potty guy, believe it or not. They've held steady around 10,000 attendees for the last several years with just the blues fest component. This year will include the addition of motorcycles. Motorcycle events in the morning hours with the bulk of the traffic coming midday for the start of music and staying around.

We are in southwest New Mexico. It is an outdoor event and from what I can tell, there aren't any rules about bringing in food/drinks. We have heard that the past few years have seen cold weather over the course of the event, but it didn't deter people from attending the festivities. I imagine cold weather would be great for coffee sales.

Hours of event (and also our presence) are Fri 10am - 7pm, Sat/Sun 8am - 9pm

That's a great point about those fetching coffees for other people and grabbing cream and sugar. Do you think $3 for a 12 oz is reasonable? We were thinking $1 for the bottled water.

 

[PinkRose]

Do you think $3 for a 12 oz is reasonable? We were thinking $1 for the bottled water.

From what I've seen, at these types of events, most of the concession prices for food and beverages are pretty steep. That's why plenty of people bring in their own food and beverages.

Since you already sell your coffee for $2.25 for a 12 ounce cup, you'll probably have no problem getting people to pay $3.00 at the event. I've never attended any event where it was only $1.00 for bottled water. Will you be keeping the water in a cooler? Are you sure you want to only charge $1.00?

I've noticed that many people who ride motorcycles tend to carry large bills. I guess having $20's and $50's takes up less room in their wallets. I hope you plan to have plenty of small bills to make change. After five people each hand you a $20 bill to pay for a $1.00 bottle of water, you'll want to just give it to them for free.

Rose

 

[Gila]

Yes, water will be in a cooler. Good point about the big bills! We'll be sure to have lots of smaller bills.

Any idea on number of drinks sold per hour/day? I've seen estimates online that indicate we should expect to serve 25% of them, or 2,500. That's a lot of coffee to have roasted! That would be an average of ~833 cups/day and 70/hour. Does that seem accurate? Anybody else done an event with 10,000 or so people and how many drinks did you serve?

 

[PinkRose]

Are the people who attend the event locals who will come back all three days?

The first day of an event usually draws the biggest crowd. Of course, the day that has the best weather prediction is also a winner.

The problem with going with the 25% prediction is that, many people probably will be bringing their own food and beverages and having their own picinics at the event. Also, even though music festivals don't usually attract children, it's hard to predict how many of the estimated 10,000 will be children who won't drink coffee.

You mentioned that there will be two other vendors selling coffee as well as food items, and you'll only be selling coffee and water. People like to have something to eat with their coffee, and they may go elsewhere once they see that you aren't selling other snack items. That may cut down on your coffee sales.

However, the bottled water will be a big seller all throughout the day.

How many pounds of coffee were you planning on roasting and having ready?

Will you be giving out bags of roasted coffee samples at the event so people can get to know your roastery business?

 

[Gila]

It is supposedly some locals but a huge # of visitors too.

I was initially worried about the other vendors who also offer coffee. But then we were told that we'll be the first food (beverage really) vendor positioned on the path from the seating area to the food vendor strip. So we'll be the first thing people pass and we'll have the 'this is a local product' thing going for us; versus the vendors who just travel around from gig to gig. We are also going to have a few different origins on tap so that people have reason to come back and try something new.

I spoke to a lemonade vendor last night who told me they sell at least 20 gallons of lemonade a day during this particular event; or about 160 people. Assuming we serve the same number (as a low estimate), we were planning on needing 20 lbs of coffee (to serve ~480 people total) and 40 lbs on the high end (for about ~960-1000 people). We'll have 20 lbs ready for Friday and if needed, can roast Friday night and serve it Sunday (not the ideal rest period, but hopefully doable).

We aren't allowed to offer whole bean but we are going to hang up a sign/map directing people to where our roast house and beans are located (~ 1.5 miles down the road).

Oh, and we decided to sell water at $2 unless you buy it with a coffee, then it's $1.00.

 

[PinkRose]

It sounds like you have a good plan.

And, it will be a learning experience for next year.

I hope you'll be able to take some time to enjoy some of the music festival while you're there.

Rose

 

[JerryB]

Gila,
It would be nice if you would come back to the forum and post a report on your outcome.

Jerry

 

[PinkRose]

Gila,
It would be nice if you would come back to the forum and post a report on your outcome.

Jerry

Thanks Jerry! I totally forgot to mention that. It certainly will be interesting to learn how things went.

Rose

 

[Gila]

Lessons learned

Hey everybody, just wrapped up the event late last night. Some things we learned -

The hard lessons and things that didn't work:

• People - Estimating number of attendees based on porta potty contents is not valid and should not be given to a vendor to either lure them in or aid them in estimating sales. Many if not all of the people who attended the event came every day. And that doesn't mean they bought a coffee everyday. So maybe there were 3-4000 (different) people who attended.
• Exclusivity - The vendor coordinator was not 100% honest when he said we'd be the sole coffee provider. There was a booth selling coffee and ice cream (not coffee as 1 of many food items) and their coffee was $1. It was terrible, true, but it likely pulled some of our sales away.
• Location - We were placed in what was supposedly a 'good spot' because we were the first booth between the music and the food vendor street. However, many people couldn't find us. We had big signs and an LED coffee sign. Many vendors came over and told us that they are sending people our way but they 'can't find us'. I believe our shady location between two structures made us semi-invisible and people got distracted while trying to figure it out.
• Signs - we printed our 3 page signs and stapled them to big poster paper. Our first round (which said menu with our discount cup incentive, our prices and then bean/origin characteristics) was replaced by a more personalized version (which said "First specialty coffee roaster..." with a picture of our shop and directions from the festival, our prices and then origin characteristics) . The new signs worked MUCH better. We created a ton of interest and were able to gesture at the picture of the shop and give better directions. We didn't put the new signs up until Sunday and may have lost considerable traffic due to our delayed change.
• Coffee runs - We got slammed on Saturday and started doing coffee runs with only 1 airpot. Always insist on doing trips of 2 airpots or more even if that means an origin is completely out at the festival for a short period of time.
• Tent support - We added additional guy lines on Saturday because of the crazy wind. Friday would have been better if they'd been there.
• Communication - A lot of people come up and said "Just give me your darkest" and it was hard at first to field it knowing whatever two coffees we were offering were far from the grocery store version of a dark roast. I worked out my lines in time but it would have helped to anticipate that request.

The great lessons & things that worked:

• The event was excellent exposure for us. Despite having been open for 4 weeks prior to the event and being on a highway that everybody drives on, a large percentage of the town still doesn't know we exist. We met a lot of people who were real coffee enthusiasts and only drink good coffee. They were thrilled we were there; very appreciative and supportive.
• Many people who visited our booth have since come by this morning (the next day) and purchased either beans or a drink.
  • We had one lady get upset because I wouldn't make her iced coffee with 20 oz of coffee and 2 ice cubes. I insisted that I knew how best to serve it and the ratio/recipe is in place for a reason. She commented on the price and grumbled the whole time; even making an unsavory comment to the next lady in line. I made the cup how I felt it should be served and she paid and left....
  • She came this morning and said our coffee was amazing, she absolutely loved it and wanted some beans. She bought a pound of the bean used for the iced coffee and raved about us to everybody in line (which was a ton of people who parked in the drive-through and stood in a huddle outside our window, chatting it up...strangest thing I've witnessed here so far.)
• We decided to roast about 7 lbs of each origin to have ready for brewing and to give us enough to get into this week. We used our classic tasting Colombia for the iced coffee. All of the origins were very well received and we had to come into the shack mid-festival to roast MORE so we could restock our supply for the regular workweek. Despite the hectic mid-weekend roasting, it felt nice not to end up with a ton of beans that were advancing in age and declining in quality.
• While our semi-invisible location was not good for those looking for us, it was great for those that did find us. By being away from the food vendors, we had a quiet, nice space where people congregated and drank their coffee. Our "fair regulars" would dash over for their refills, catch up with someone they had met during their first coffee order and dash off again. We were a convenient and peaceful location for those that appreciate the good stuff. We somehow managed to create a temporary, fair community.
• Pricing was great. People didn't blink at $3 and only the one lady grumbled about the $5 iced. Everybody appreciated the idea behind 'keep your cup & save a buck' but most of them just paid full price again. Either money isn't an issue or they're not into the eco-friendly incentive.
• Portable creamers and sugars worked great; Having the customer take care of their drink allowed me to progress to the next person in line and be faster overall.
• Assigning one person to the stand worked better than rotating between us. I learned people's names and people became comfortable with me. I knew what they'd order before they arrived at the table and they appreciated me being ready for them. I think it was better for relationship development. As sexist as this will sound, being a woman may have helped also.
• Because I was solo, I used a money apron with different pockets designated for different bills - $10s, $5s and $1s. I never had a change problem and was pretty quick getting people their money.
• We used a whiteboard marker to indicate the number of cups that had been served out of each airpot. By doing so, I could request the next coffee based on what was moving quickly and I always knew how much I had left.
• We had decaf available on Friday but learned that for the most part, it is only ordered in the afternoon. On Saturday, we had a line form that was waiting for it and we went through 3 airpots back-to-back. No decaf sales at all on Sunday.
• Iced coffee was great and worth the effort. The weather was beautiful and hot coffee out-sold iced coffee. That being said, we were the only vendor with iced coffee and some people don't like it hot.
• I don't know if this can be generalized for other events, but Friday was almost dead, Saturday was nearly crazy and Sunday was nice and mellow.

Overall - the financial payoff was not much and barely covered the booth fee. It was helpful that we did not hire anybody to help. Maybe having a different location or exclusive rights to coffee would have increased volume. But we decided to think of the event as promotional - we got our name out there and a lot of people drank our coffee. A TON of locals learned who we are, met me and/or my husband, loved our coffees and will probably be stopping by soon. I consider this past weekend a success.

 

[Gila]

Just looked back through the thread and wanted to add a few more things -
-Loads of local kids and I'm sure they used the pots (inflating the attendee number) and none of them bought a coffee.
-We are thinking of next year asking for the spot next to the funnel cake vendor but kind of don't want to give up our peaceful location
-We sold nearly no bottled waters...maybe 8-10. I think there was a girl scout troop walking through the lawn with a wagon. The only ones we sold were at night, presumably after the girls went home.
-Mornings were DEAD all three days. We were there everyday by 7:30/8:00am and probably didn't start selling coffee until 11am. I think people got coffee before they arrived so they didn't want more until mid-day. And evenings on Friday (opening day) and Sunday (closing day) were pretty weak.

 

[PinkRose]

Wow! Thanks for the update.

It sounds like it was quite an adventure as well as a good learning experience for you. Thanks for letting us know how it worked out.

Do you think you'll do it again next year??


Rose

 

[Gila]

We will very likely do it again next year. The only thing to figure out is the coffee runs. Friday and Saturday are usually our best days at the drive-through. During this past weekend, we had to close it down every time a coffee run happened so it would be closed for 20-40 minutes at a time (with a sign in the window). That seriously hurt our regular sales and possibly upset our regulars. The easiest solution would be to hire a runner but there is so much downtime, that they would be paid more for doing nothing than helping.